An archive of past updates
August 2026
On August 23, 2026, I made a bet with Jacob:
100 years after the advent of god-like superintelligence (defined as being good enough at biology to be able to create any creature that is physically realizable from a description of it), both Jo and Jacob will be more than 99.9% confident that Claude Mythos 5 either did or did not have qualia. If it turns out that possessing qualia is a sliding scale, any qualia counts for the purposes of this bet. This bet assumes that Jo and Jacob will both try to resolve it in good faith. Jacob is on the side of YES and Jo is on the side of NO. Jacob thinks there's an 80% chance of this resolving YES; Jo thinks there's a 30% chance. This bet is at even odds and the loser has to give the winner min(1e-46 of the lightcone (by mass-energy, including dark matter if it is mass-energy), 1% of min(net worth of Jacob, net worth of Jo)) at the time of resolution. This bet is conditional on the Claude Mythos 5 weights, Jacob, and Jo being around when it resolves.
May 2026
I recently took part in Temptemus Papam, a 100+ people 1492 papal conclave simulation run by Prof. Ada Palmer. I wrote many a letter, dressed up as a cardinal, and dreamed about 15th century sistine Realpolitik. It is such a joy to read Machiavelli and understand the families and city-states and the political currents that shaped his thoughts; or see a portrait by Raphael and be so moved not just by his mastery but by the subject; plus Dante, Shakespeare, Michelangelo, and so many other spectacular talents. If you think of literature, art or music that you enjoy from the Italian Renaissance, I would be delighted to hear you talk about it!